About Tiresias

Tiresias was the blind seer of Theban myth, denied sight of the world yet granted vision of what it would become. The conceit suits the method. The model never observes a game directly. It simulates each matchup hundreds of times, play by play, and from those repetitions assembles a probability distribution over every outcome that matters: final scores, margins, totals, and individual player lines.

The distribution is the point. A single projection implies a precision the game never offers; instead we report the full shape of the simulated outcomes, their central tendency, their dispersion, and the probability mass on either side of the market’s number. Where the simulation is confident the curve is narrow, and where the game is genuinely uncertain it is wide, and we say so.

We are not a picks service and we do not issue plays. We publish probabilities and the reasoning that produces them, and we leave the wager to you. Calibration is the standard we hold ourselves to, and it is strongest on totals: across a full-season backtest, when the model puts roughly 60 percent of its probability on the over, the over comes in at close to that rate. Game-outcome and spread-cover probabilities are noisier, so we treat the moneyline and the spread as leans rather than calibrated numbers.

We are equally candid about the model’s limits. Its totals and over/under estimates are its most reliable. Its spread projections are deliberately conservative, a known consequence of averaging many simulated results, and are better read as directional context, the side the simulation leans toward, than as an established edge or a literal forecast of the line. Player outcomes exhibit large game-to-game variance, so we publish the entire distribution, including percentiles and the probability of clearing a given line, rather than a point estimate dressed as a forecast.

Each week’s forecasts are published to Substack subscribers before kickoff; once the games are final, that same forecast opens free here, set beside the outcome. Every projection is recorded against the realized result, week by week, win or loss, in full public view. No locks, no guarantees. Only the forecast before the storm.