The forecast before the storm
Every NFL game, as a full distribution.
We map out the shape of the game before it happens, so you can see where our forecast diverges from the market. We turn years of NFL history into thousands of simulated outcomes: a full distribution, not a single guess, with the line overlaid right on top. We make no promise about any single week. Our mission is to build probability curves that are calibrated, honest about uncertainty, and free of the false precision that defines most of this space. We don’t claim to see the future, only to read it honestly.
Follow on SubstackLaunching for the 2026 NFL season.
Each week’s forecasts go to Substack subscribers before kickoff, then open free on this site once the games are final.
Coming for 2026
Game distributions
Full curves over final scores, margins, and totals, with the market’s line and the realized result overlaid for direct comparison.
2026 seasonPlayer projections
Per-player distributions with percentiles and the simulated probability of clearing a given line, not point estimates.
2026 seasonWeekly analysis
Where the simulation diverges from the market, and an honest public record of how it read the week before.
2026 season